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BCB Raises 2024 GDP Forecast, Inflation Forecasts Unchanged

BRAZIL
  • In its March quarterly inflation report, the BCB raised its 2024 GDP forecast by 20bp to 1.9%, noting the dynamic labour market and recovery in credit flows. Inflation forecasts were unchanged, however, with the central bank still expecting CPI inflation to end this year at 3.5% and to reach 3.2% by end-2025.
  • The GDP revision follows some upbeat comments from finance minister Haddad yesterday, when he said that the economy is capable of growing without putting pressure on prices. He added that inflation has retreated and is within the target band and that growth should surprise market projections. On Petrobras, he also said that President Lula, as the controlling shareholder, will exercise control over the company’s pricing and investment policies. He added, however, that even under government control, decisions to be taken must respect the rights of minority shareholders.
  • On the data front today, the national unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.8% in February, from 7.6% (1200GMT/0800ET). Federal debt data for February will also cross at 1730GMT. President Lula will hold a bilateral meeting with France President Emmanuel Macron at 1500GMT.
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