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BCCH Analyst Views

CHILE
  • *Goldman Sachs: The MPC tweaked the forward guidance, becoming clearly more hawkish.
  • Ultimately, reducing the monetary policy stimulus reflects first and foremost an upbeat outlook for economic activity driven in part by additional sizeable fiscal policy stimulus.
  • The hawkish twists to the guidance are consistent with their policy rate call, where they expect the MPC to hike the policy rate by 75bp to 1.25% by year-end, with another 125bp to 2.50% by end-2022.
  • Furthermore, policy normalization from exceptional levels is also in order given that domestic political/legislative risk remains high and global inflation concerns are top of mind (particularly in the US).
  • *JPMorgan: The most relevant takeaway of today's statement is that, as anticipated in the prior meeting minutes, the Board is to revise the monetary impulse ahead.
  • Based on the improved economic outlook, their base case had entertained the CBC altering its forward guidance in the 2Q21 MPR, signalling the start of a gradual rate normalization before year-end. They forecast 50bp in policy rate hikes (25bp in October and 25bp in December), but the risk is for CBC to kick off the cycle at the August meeting.
  • The monthly profile suggest headline inflation is to print, temporarily, above the 4% ceiling of the target range in July-August, which may create pressure on inflation expectations and thus on the central bank policy reaction.
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