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BCCh April Review – Analyst Views

CHILE
  • **Goldman Sachs: Overall, Goldman Sachs’ reading of the post-meeting statement is hawkish and their view for the path of monetary policy is biased towards delaying cuts. Still, as inflation and inflation expectations consolidate a trend downwards and the positive output gap narrows, they expect the central bank to be able to move its nominal policy rate lower later in the year while upholding a restrictive monetary stance.
  • **Itaú expect the 1Q IPoM to revise activity and inflation up for this year, with the monetary policy corridor signaling gradual cuts beginning by June at the earliest. On the political front, the one-year hiatus for the full pension fund withdrawal discussion is met on April 18, suggesting political noise will be elevated as some congressmen prepare to present further withdrawals. The government is against new withdrawals, but low approval ratings, weakening economy and elevated inflation mean calls for greater stimulus will grow.
  • **JPMorgan: In all, the message of the Board is for the policy rate to be stable for longer, making unlikely the easing JPM had in their base case scenario for late 2Q23. They thus wait for the information embedded in the policy report today in order to reassess on the monetary policy ahead. The prior is for pushing the start of the easing cycle to 3Q23, and likely incorporating a more aggressive easing pace than what JPM had anticipated.
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