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BCCh Survey Raises Year-End Rate Forecast To 4.50%

CHILE
  • Alongside a more moderate forecast of a 75bp rate cut in April, 2024 year-end inflation has also been raised to 3.5% vs 3.0% in the last survey. It's worth caveating the new methodology has raised issues with Deutsche Bank noting:
  • “The reporting of inflation continues to create some confusion,” they wrote. “The headline measure that the BCCh will focus on remains within the target band while the core indicator is approaching the ceiling of the target band”
  • Elsewhere within the BCCH economist survey:
    • 2024 year-end rate forecast raised to 4.50% vs 4.25% last survey
    • Peso to trade at 890 CLP/USD in 11 months, and 855 in 23 months

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