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BCRA Unchanged Following Below-Estimate Inflation Data For June

ARGENTINA
  • As a reminder, CPI in Argentina rose at a softer pace than expected for a second straight month in June, prolonging a brief respite even as living costs continue increasing at an elevated pace. Following the data, the BCRA held its key Leliq interest rate at 97% citing slowing inflation, according to an emailed statement.
  • *Goldman Sachs said despite an extensive set of price controls in the economy, inflation dynamics continue to worsen. Policy credibility is weak, the government’s attempts to contain price increases have been unsuccessful, and inflation expectations remain unanchored. Ultimately, the high inflation environment in Argentina reflects deep structural macro policy imbalances. As such, GS expect inflation to remain elevated and believe that the risk of an even more severe loss of monetary and price control remains considerable.
  • *JPMorgan said that although the inflationary process may be non-linear, as evidenced by the May and June data, the economy continues in the midst of an inflation acceleration process amid persistently wide macroeconomic imbalances. Indeed, the growing FX and monetary imbalances, the tight import controls, and the fiscal and financing challenges amid an increasingly severe drought will continue to exert upward pressures on underlying inflation. And particular prices (mainly food) helping the inflation print in the last two months will eventually revert the trend, adding upward pressure on inflation by 4Q23.
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