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BCRP Set To Cut Interest Rate By Another 25bp This Week

PERU
  • With inflation having fallen back to the 2% target in May, the central bank is widely expected to continue with its gradual easing cycle this week, delivering another 25bp cut to 5.5% on Thursday. The full MNI preview of the meeting, along with analyst views will be published later this week.
  • JP Morgan notes that the BCRP has reiterated that it will continue to cut the policy rate, independently of whether the Fed does so. A narrower interest rate differential may cause periods of downside pressure on the currency, but the monetary authority has repeated its willingness to intervene if need be. JPM expect the policy rate to converge to 4.75% by year-end, with the terminal rate at 4.25% by mid-2025.
  • On the data front, April economic activity figures are due to be released on Saturday, with analysts expecting economic growth to have been flat in y/y terms last month, following a 0.3% y/y contraction in March.
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