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BCRP Unanimously Expected To Raise Rates 50BPs To 5.50%

PERU
  • The central bank is expected to raise interest rates 50 basis points to 5.50%, according to all 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This would mark the eleventh rate increase this cycle and tenth consecutive 50bp hike.
  • Goldman Sachs on the decision:
    • In their assessment, the outlook for inflation remains challenging and inflation expectations have deteriorated further. In the May central bank’s survey, economists’ inflation expectations for end-2022 and end-2023 rose by +50bp and +60bp, each to 6.0% and 3.8%, respectively.
    • Additionally, political uncertainty and risk remain significant and the sizeable increase in the minimum wage and another round of pension fund withdrawals could increase inflationary pressures.
    • Furthermore, the fact that the real ex-ante policy rate remains low, given the rise in inflation expectations, support the case for continued rate hikes in future meetings.
  • Separately, five members from the Perú Libre (left) caucus in Congress have formed a new caucus under the name of Perú Bicentenario, due to disagreements with Perú Libre caucus actions and leadership. The governing party's caucus now only has 16 congresspeople. (AmericaElige)

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