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BCRP’s 2024 GDP Forecast Edges Up To 3.1%

PERU
  • Speaking at a press conference this afternoon, BCRP President Julio Velarde said that the central bank expects the Peruvian economy to grow by 3.1% this year, marginally above the previous 3.0% forecast. He said that this estimate had an upward bias.
  • Meanwhile, inflation is expected to end the year at 2.2%, unchanged from the previous forecast, before falling to 2.0% by the end of 2025. On the fiscal front, the central bank expects the deficit to come in at 2.8% of GDP this year, above the government’s 2.5% estimate. Velarde also highlighted his concerns about the risk of capital flight ahead of the 2026 elections.
    • "PERU CENBANK HOLDS INFLATION ESTIMATE FOR THIS YEAR AT 2.2%"
    • "PROJECTS FISCAL DEFICIT OF 2.8% OF GDP IN 2024 AND 1.6% OF GDP IN 2025" - Reuters
    • "CAPITAL FLIGHT FROM PERU IS A WORRY FOR 2026 ELECTIONS: VELARDE" - BBG

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