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Bear Flattening Continues, But 30Y Levels Stand Out

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The rise in European yields extends as US desks come in.

  • Despite the bear flattening bias overall, it's levels at the longer end of the curve which are arguably the most interesting:
  • 30Y Germany at 2.793% is at the highest in a decade, with 2.812% representing the 2013 high beyond which lie 2011 levels.
  • 30Y UK meanwhile at 4.807% is set to close at the highest yield level since October 2022.
  • Peak rate hike pricing continues to extend as well. BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +16bp to 6.04% (79bp of further hikes left in the cycle). ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +4.7bp to 3.99% (24bp of further hikes left in the cycle).
  • Latest yield levels: Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 8.7bps at 3.165%, 5-Yr is up 9.3bps at 2.745%, 10-Yr is up 8.4bps at 2.721%, and 30-Yr is up 7.8bps at 2.787%. UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 10.8bps at 5.189%, 5-Yr is up 9bps at 4.661%, 10-Yr is up 6.9bps at 4.635%, and 30-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.807%.

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