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Bear Flattening On UK CPI Spillover, Fedspeak and Tax Collection In Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen sizeable cheapening pressure in spillover from UK CPI inflation coming in stronger than expected. Yesterday’s weak tax collection data leaves a very large figure needed for today’s daily data (4pm ET) to avoid talk of a June x-date, with an eye also on upcoming earnings including MS and US Bancorp for banks.
  • With decent moves across 2-10Y tenors, 2s10s flattening is limited to -2.5bps on the day to -64bps (just off an earlier low of -65bps) but is still the lowest since Mar 17 aside from some CPI-induced volatility on Apr 12.
  • 2YY +7.0bp at 4.267%, 5YY +6.1bp at 3.740%, 10YY +4.8bp at 3.623% and 30YY +2.7bp at 3.814%.
  • TYM3 trades 14 ticks lower at 114-01+, just pushing back off a low of 113-30+ that stopped short of support at 113-26 (Mar 22) after which lies 113-23 (50% retrace of Mar 3 – 24 bull run). Seeing above average cumulative volumes nearing 360k.
  • Data: Weekly MBA data (0700ET), daily tax collection (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: Beige Book (1400ET), Goolsbee (1730ET, interview), NY Fed’s Williams (1900ET, text/Q&A)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $12B 20Y Bond reopen (912810TQ1) - 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $36B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET
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