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Bear-Steepening Ahead Of 20Y Supply Tomorrow

JGBS

JGB futures are holding in negative territory and just above the session’s low, -16 compared to the settlement levels.

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • 79.3% of Japanese households expect prices to rise a year from now, compared with 86.8% in the previous survey - BoJ Quarterly Survey in December. (Rtrs)
  • Local market dealings today therefore appear to have been guided by US tsys NY close yesterday and today’s Asia-Pac dealings. Cash bonds are dealing little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after early weakness. Yesterday, US tsys bear-steepened after Fed Waller pushed back against aggressive rate cut expectations.
  • The cash JGB curve has bear-steepened, with yields 1-6bps higher, ahead of tomorrow’s 20-year supply. The benchmark 10-year yield is 3.9bps higher at 0.609% versus the Nov-Dec rally low of 0.555%.
  • Swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates 1-3bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow and Core Machine Orders data.
  • Before then, there is a heavy US data calendar including Retail Sales, Import/Export $, and IP/Cap-U data. There are also Fed speakers: Barr, Bowman and Williams, and a 20-year US Treasury auction.
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