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Bear steepening and Italy leading

EGB SUMMARY

Most of the action has been in BTP and Bund today.

  • BTP has faded from this morning's high and profit taking, and investor waiting to see If Draghi will get support for a Governement.
  • Prospect of Draghi gov't continues to hinge whether 5-Star support can be assured.
  • The more positive outlook has once again pushed the German curve bear steeper today, with 5/30s breaking through resistance and highest since September.
  • Peripheral spreads, no surprises in seeing Italy leading tighter, now by just 10bps.
  • The BTP/Bund has reached tightest levels last seen since March 2016
  • Looking ahead, Fed Bullard, Harker, Mester and Evans are still scheduled
  • Bund futures are down -0.27 today at 176.48 with 10y Bund yields up 2.0bp at -0.470% and Schatz yields up 0.5bp at -0.722%.
  • BTP futures are up 0.92 today at 151.89 with 10y yields down -7.5bp at 0.575% and 2y yields down -5.7bp at -0.381%.
  • OAT futures are down -0.11 today at 166.54 with 10y yields up 1.1bp at -0.243% and 2y yields down -1.1bp at -0.643%.
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