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Bear steepening, but within yesterday's ranges

BONDS

Bond markets continue to see relatively low liquidity with markets seemingly in cycles of up day followed by down day followed by up day... This morning is no exception. We have seen core fixed income generally move lower, but remaining within yesterday's ranges (and yields still a little away from the cycle highs seen). Curve are bear steepening on the day.

  • The morning session has seen the release of PMIs across Europe and the UK. Record (or close-to-record) high inflation has been the dominant theme with output expectations showing some variation across countries. With the exception of France, however, confidence is seeping away, leading to concerned fears of stagflation. Markets seem more focused on the inflation than the growth side again, however.
  • The busy data day continues later with US durable goods the headline (released alongside weekly claims data) while the US Markit PMI will also be released.
  • The NATO summit could provide further headlines today (but is unlikely to change the narrative too much) while Fed's Evans is the highlight of cen-bank speak today.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-10+ today at 122-26 with 10y UST yields up 6.5bp at 2.359% and 2y yields up 4.4bp at 2.143%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.50 today at 159.30 with 10y Bund yields up 5.1bp at 0.515% and Schatz yields up 4.4bp at -0.215%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.05 today at 120.93 with 10y yields up 2.3bp at 1.648% and 2y yields up 1.4bp at 1.352%.

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