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Bear steepening on the open; catching up with USTs and Bunds

GILTS
  • The gilt curve has bear steepened on the open, catching up with some of the moves seen in USTs and across EGBs following yesterday's weak 5-year UST auction (although some of the initial post-open moves have since been pared).
  • The moves seen across gilts exceed those seen in the German curve, however, with 10-year gilts yields up 3.8bp at writing at 4.646% but still almost 8bp off the highs seen on Monday. The major support in yield-terms remains at 4.752% (the cycle high of 17 August 2023).
  • Looking at futures, our technical analyst notes that the moves seen earlier this week were largely seen as corrective and that gilt futures remains a bearish theme with 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont), a major support.
  • There are no scheduled speakers on monetary policy as we approach next week's MPC meeting and the domestic data highlight today will be CBI sales (although this is rarely a market mover).
  • More important for gilts today will be external events, with the ECB meeting, US GDP and core CPE likely to be closely watched.
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