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Bear-Steepening Strengthens In Post-20Y Auction Trading, National CPI Tomorrow

JGBS

JGB futures remain in negative territory, -37 compared to the settlement levels, but slightly above the session’s worst levels.

  • In addition to the morning’s Core Machinery Orders and Weekly Investment Flows data, Industrial Production (F) data for November printed in line at -0.9% m/m (-1.4% y/y). Capacity Utilization for November showed 0.3% versus 1.5% prior.
  • The domestic driver for today’s session however has been the poor 20-year JGB auction. The 20-year yield is 2bps cheaper in post-auction trading after the auction low price failed to meet dealer expectations. On a positive note, the cover ratio did increase and the auction tail shortened materially. Today’s auction followed on the heels of suboptimal results at January’s 5-, 10- and 30-year JGB supply.
  • The bear-steepening in the cash JGB curve has intensified in post-auction dealings, with yields flat to 9bps higher. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.2bps higher at 0.640% versus the Nov-Dec rally low of 0.555%.
  • The swaps curve has also bear-steepened, with swap spreads mixed.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees National CPI data and the Tertiary Industry Index.

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