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Bear Steepening, With CPI And 10-Yr Supply In Focus

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys have drifted lower in European trade having previously ticked higher in Asia-Pac hours, albeit no discernable headline drivers throughout. Most attention is on upcoming inflation data and 10-Yr supply.

  • Curve bear steepening: the 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.1647%, 5-Yr is up 2.1bps at 0.8263%, 10-Yr is up 3.5bps at 1.5612%, and 30-Yr is up 4.3bps at 2.2761%.
  • Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) down 4/32 at 132-5.5 (L: 132-05 / H: 132-15.5).
  • 0830ET brings the Feb CPI release - which is expected to show an acceleration in both core and headline price pressures vs Jan. At 1400ET we get the monthly budget statement.
  • Supply opens with the $30B 119-day bill auction at 1130ET as the appetizer for the $38B 10-Yr Note auction at 1300ET. The latter seen as a major test of demand for burgeoning Treasury supply, following last month's weak auctions (though yesterday's 3-Yr sale went fine).
  • House will vote this morning on the $1.9trn relief package, once approved will go to Pres Biden.
  • NY Fed buys ~$1.75B of 20-30Y Tsys.
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