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Bear Steeper Ahead Of ECI, MNI Chicago PMI To Offer Mfg Clues

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have reversed overnight gains to see yields climb slightly on the day, up between 0.5-2bps and bear steepening with 2s10s at -34.5bps (+1.5bp).
  • European matters again help set the tone, with Treasuries outperforming after higher-than-expected French flash inflation data and stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP prints from the four largest EZ economies.
  • TYM4 has touch fresh session lows of 107-25 (- 05+), pulling back towards the middle of yesterday’s range on reasonable volumes just north of 300k.
  • Resistance is seen at 108-14 (20-day EMA) but the trend needle points south with support at 107-04 (Apr 25 low).
  • Today’s focus is on the Q1 Employment Cost Index but the MNI Chicago PMI also offers a useful update ahead of tomorrow’s ISM mfg print after regional Fed and PMI surveys have moved in opposite directions in April. The Conference Board’s labor differential will also be watched ahead of Friday’s payrolls report.
  • Data: ECI Q1 (0830ET), FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house prices Feb (0900ET), MNI Chicago PMI Apr (0945ET), Conf Board consumer survey Apr (1000ET) and Dallas Fed services Apr (1030ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 42 Day CMB auction (1130ET)
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