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Bear Steeper Ahead With PCE and Jobless Claims Landing First

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 1-4bp cheaper, led by 10s, with the steepening pushing 2s10s back to yesterday’s highs and currently at -36bps (+3bps).
  • Treasuries underperform EGBs after mostly softer than expected readings including Eurozone CPI, a surprise lift in the German unemployment rate and a downward revision for French GDP.
  • Monthly PCE and weekly jobless claims both at 0830ET are likely to set the tone for the session but there is still notable events afterwards including NY Fed’s Williams and the MNI Chicago PMI before heavy bill issuance. Quarterly core PCE data were yesterday revised lower back in Q3, whilst weekly claims surprisingly dropped last week although by our rough guide it looked to be on a beneficial seasonal adjustment which could bias an upward surprise this week.
  • TYH4 at 110-04+ (-5+) is close to the day’s low of 110-03+ but remains within yesterday’s range. The modest decline on the day doesn’t alter the recently reinforced bullish theme, with resistance at yesterday’s high of 110-15+ and then 110-25 (Fibo projection) but in the event of hawkish surprises today support is seen at 109-05+ (Nov 28 low).
  • Data: PCE Oct (0830ET), Weekly jobless claims incl payrolls ref. week for continuing (0830ET), MNI Chicago PMI Nov (0945ET), Pending home sales Oct (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Willams (0915ET) – see below for details.
  • Bill issuance: Tsy to sell $80B 4-week bills, $80B 8-week bills (1130ET)

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