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US TSYS: Bear Steeper In Post-Holiday Catch-Up

US TSYS
  • Treasuries sit lower across the curve today in catch-up from yesterday’s cash closure and early close for futures for Presidents’ Day.
  • The downward pressure primarily reflects spillover from EGBs and raised defense spending expectations.
  • Cash yields are 1.5-3bp higher from Friday’s close, with the front end lagging increases despite Waller’s more hawkish comments overnight - see STIR bullet for more commentary.
  • 2s10s at 23.5bp (+1.5bp) sits within recent ranges.
  • TYH5 trades at 109-02 (-08) close to earlier lows of 109-01. Moving average studies highlight a dominant downtrend whilst support isn’t seen until 108-04 (Feb 12 low) before 108-00 (Jan 16 low).
  • Data: Empire mfg Feb (0830ET), NAHB housing index Feb (1000ET), TIC flows Dec (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: Daly (1020ET, text + Q&A), Barr (1300ET, text + Q&A).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy sells $80bn 13-wk bills, $70bn 26-wk bills (1130ET), $80bn 6-wk bills, $48bn 52-wk bills (1300ET)
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  • Treasuries sit lower across the curve today in catch-up from yesterday’s cash closure and early close for futures for Presidents’ Day.
  • The downward pressure primarily reflects spillover from EGBs and raised defense spending expectations.
  • Cash yields are 1.5-3bp higher from Friday’s close, with the front end lagging increases despite Waller’s more hawkish comments overnight - see STIR bullet for more commentary.
  • 2s10s at 23.5bp (+1.5bp) sits within recent ranges.
  • TYH5 trades at 109-02 (-08) close to earlier lows of 109-01. Moving average studies highlight a dominant downtrend whilst support isn’t seen until 108-04 (Feb 12 low) before 108-00 (Jan 16 low).
  • Data: Empire mfg Feb (0830ET), NAHB housing index Feb (1000ET), TIC flows Dec (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: Daly (1020ET, text + Q&A), Barr (1300ET, text + Q&A).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy sells $80bn 13-wk bills, $70bn 26-wk bills (1130ET), $80bn 6-wk bills, $48bn 52-wk bills (1300ET)