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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
Spot USD/PHP has extended losses today, with the peso likely drawing some support from optimistic BSP speak. The rate last sits -0.014 at PHP50.006, after seemingly charting a double top pattern towards the back end of last week, with the 23.6% retracement of the Jun 29 - Jul 19 rally giving way in the process. This Fibo level (PHP50.016) has been recouped this morning, leaving bears on the looking for a renewed sell-off below there. This would shift focus to the 38.2% Fibo level located at PHP49.718. Conversely, a rebound above Jul 28/19 highs of PHP50.490/50.496 would give bulls some fresh momentum.
- USD/PHP 1-month NDF last +0.050 at PHP50.110, with bulls looking for a jump above Jul 27 high of PHP50.730. Bears look for a clean break under the 38.2% retracement of the Jun 7 - Jul 19 upswing at PHP49.969, after a head and shoulders pattern appeared on the daily chart last week. The next downside target is provided by Jul 2 low of PHP49.250.
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Gov Diokno noted that "with cautious optimism, we can say that the worst is over" for domestic economy. His comments were circulated on Friday after the government announced a two-week lockdown in the National Capital Region.
- Oxford Economics lowered their estimate of the Philippines' long-term neutral policy rate to +5.0% from +5.5% and said that the country is set to take the largest hit from Covid-19 among Asia-Pacific nations.
- Philippine loans net of RRPs shrank 2.0% Y/Y in June, showing a continued moderation in annual decline.
- The Philippine Statistics Authority will release monthly unemployment tomorrow. Later this week, the latest CPI data will be published Thursday, while trade balance is due Friday.
Fig. 1: Spot USD/PHP
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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