BELGIUM: Lengthy Coalition Building Period Could Be Needed After 9 June Election

Belgium holds its federal election on 9 June. Given Belgium's complex political system and plethora of parties representing French, Dutch, and German speaking communities, the election will not deliver a clear-cut answer as to which parties will form the next gov't. What does appear clear at present is that the current gov't of PM Alexander De Croo, formed by the social democratic, green, and liberal parties from both French and Dutch-speaking communities, and the centre-right Christian Democratic and Flemish party, is unlikely to retain its majority in the Chamber of Deputies. 

• According to the latest polls there are five potential post-election coalitions that could carry a majority
  1. National Unity - Social democrats, greens, Christian democrats, liberals, and Flemish nationalists
  2. 'Arizona' - Social democrats, Christian democrats, liberals, Flemish nationalists
  3. 'Vivaldi +LE' - Greens, social democrats, Christian democrats, liberals and centrist Les Engages (LE)
  4. Centre-right - Christian democrats, liberals, Flemish nationalists, Flemish separatists
  5. 'Big Olive Tree' - Far left, greens, social democrats, Christian democrats 
• The most likely of these to be formed are the first three, with the 'centre-right' alliance including the far-right Vlaams Belang - historically subject to a cordon sanitaire where other parties will not work with them, and the 'Big Olive Tree' including the far-left Workers' Party of Belgium, also having never served in gov't. 
• A further complicating factor is that voters will also elect members of the regional parliaments. Any difficulties between parties in the Flemish, Walloon, or Brussels parliaments could complicate gov't formation at the federal level.