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MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL NOV INDEX 71.8

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Belly-Led Cheapening Ahead Of Payrolls, ISM Services

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 3-4.5bp cheaper, led by the belly with yields across the curve continuing to retreat from late 2023 lows. Today's move sees firmer clearance of 4% for the 10Y, latest 4.04%.
  • Yesterday’s solid labor indicators, with hawkish surprises for ADP employment and jobless claims plus lower Challenger job cuts, have helped along with broader sentiment around what had been more than six Fed rate cuts priced for 2024.
  • Today’s payrolls report (MNI Preview) and then 90 minutes later the ISM services report should help set the tone from here, kickstarting the top tier data for the year.
  • TYH4 trades close to session lows of 111-18+ as it extends its corrective pullback amidst solid volumes of 345k. Having previously cleared support at 111-31+ (20-day EMA), it now sets its sights on 111-09+ (Dec 7 high).
  • Data: Payrolls report Dec (0830ET), ISM Services Dec (1000ET), Factory orders Nov (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (’24 voter) with Maryland Bankers’ Association (1330ET incl text), but he's already spoken this week.
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