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Belly Led Sell-Off Amidst Soft Volumes, 3Y Auction Ahead

US TSYS
  • After an extremely quiet Asia session, cash Treasuries have seen a growing bear steepening through European hours and with the US coming in, with the sell-off led by the belly with the implication of a stronger growth outlook contrary to the rolling in S&P E-minis.
  • Lagging the sell-off in European sovereigns but underperforming Gilts in 10Y space on marginally dovish BoE comments, there are few clear drivers in what could just be a reversal of yesterday’s rally. The earlier NFIB survey, hitting at 0600ET with a small rise in optimism and moderation in the net share of businesses raising selling prices, might have lent support at the margin but not much more than that.
  • 2YY +2.5bps at 3.230%, 5YY +4.3bps at 2.949%, 10YY +3.5bps at 2.792% and 30YY +2.9bps at 3.014%.
  • TYU2 trades 9 ticks lower at 119-18+, it’s within yesterday’s range but moves closer to trendline support at 119-07+ (drawn from Jun 16 low) with the 50-day EMA of 119-06+ sitting just below. Volumes are below already low average levels.
  • Data: Nonfarm productivity and ULC preliminary releases for Q2 – 0830ET
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 3Y Note auction (91282CFE6) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $34B 52W bill auction – 1130ET
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