Free Trial

Belly Underperforming Ahead Of 5Y Supply

US

Treasuries and rate futures are a little lower to start Thanksgiving week, with initial support overnight from China COVID concerns fading in the European morning.

  • Moves across the curve have been limited so far, with flattening overall, with the belly underperforming. Supply in some focus with $42B of 2Y Note and $43B of 5Y Note on offer later today (1130ET and 1300ET, respectively).
  • Rate futures are a little weaker across the strip, off 2-2.5 ticks, but minimal change in either Dec FOMC OIS hike pricing (54.5bp) or terminal rate (Jun '23, 5.06%).
  • Comments from Atlanta Fed's Bostic over the weekend pointed to another 75-100bp in the hike cycle (to 4.75-5.00%).
  • Early futures rolls are underway ahead of the holidays and next week's 1st notice.
  • A light schedule in terms of data and speakers today: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (never a market mover, at 0830ET) is the data, and the speaker is SF Fed's Daly at 1300ET.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 4.531%, 5-Yr is up 0.7bps at 4.0154%, 10-Yr is down 0.2bps at 3.8269%, and 30-Yr is down 1.2bps at 3.9145%.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.