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Benign Inflation Prints Expected, But PMI Price Indices Recovered In February

CHINA DATA
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A reminder that China Feb inflation figures are out tomorrow. CPI is expected at 1.9% y/y (forecast range is 1.2% to 2.3%), with the prior read at 2.1% from Jan. PPI is expected at -1.3% y/y (forecast range is -0.5% to -1.7%). The prior read in Jan was -0.8%.

  • Headline consumer prices are expected to be weighed down by lower food prices and a return to more normal conditions in the services sector, post the LNY period. Note core prices rebounded to 1.0% y/y in Jan.
  • Last week's PMIs showed increased price pressures in the manufacturing space. Input prices rose to 54.4 from 52.2, although this arguably suggests more upside risks to the PPI rather than CPI. Base effects and weaker commodity prices in Feb are expected to offset.
  • Output prices for the manufacturing PMI were more muted but still back above 50 (51.7 versus 48.7 in Jan).
  • For the non-manufacturing PMI, input prices were 51.1, down slightly, while selling prices nudged up to 50.8 from 48.3.

Fig 1: China PPI & China Manufacturing PMI Input Prices

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A reminder that China Feb inflation figures are out tomorrow. CPI is expected at 1.9% y/y (forecast range is 1.2% to 2.3%), with the prior read at 2.1% from Jan. PPI is expected at -1.3% y/y (forecast range is -0.5% to -1.7%). The prior read in Jan was -0.8%.

  • Headline consumer prices are expected to be weighed down by lower food prices and a return to more normal conditions in the services sector, post the LNY period. Note core prices rebounded to 1.0% y/y in Jan.
  • Last week's PMIs showed increased price pressures in the manufacturing space. Input prices rose to 54.4 from 52.2, although this arguably suggests more upside risks to the PPI rather than CPI. Base effects and weaker commodity prices in Feb are expected to offset.
  • Output prices for the manufacturing PMI were more muted but still back above 50 (51.7 versus 48.7 in Jan).
  • For the non-manufacturing PMI, input prices were 51.1, down slightly, while selling prices nudged up to 50.8 from 48.3.

Fig 1: China PPI & China Manufacturing PMI Input Prices

Keep reading...Show less