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Berenberg: Expect on hold decision this week

BOE
  • “While there is a clear risk that the BoE will hike on Thursday by 25bp to take the bank rate to 0.75%, we think that there is a higher chance that policymakers will surprise markets by holding steady.”
  • “In what will probably be a split vote, policymakers will likely emphasise that rates may need to rise by more than previously signalled from May onwards in case demand remains robust through Putin’s war and medium-term inflation risks worsen.”
  • “Expect Putin’s war to badly hurt UK economic performance during Q2 and through the early part of Q3 before healthy consumer and business fundamentals reassert themselves and lift momentum through H2 2022.”
  • Continue to expect 25bp hikes in May22, Aug22 (end-2022 1.00%), Q1-23 and Q3-23 (end-2023 1.50%) and two more in 2024 to 2.00%.
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