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Betfair implied probabilities on UK politics:....>

UK
UK: Betfair implied probabilities on UK politics:
* First to Happen: Brexit/May to leave? May leaving = 96% (was 60% not long ago)
* Meaningful vote to pass in 2019? Yes = 39% (contract low)
* Article 50 To Be Revoked? 30% (though hit contract high of 38% yesterday)
* Will The UK leave the EU on/before Oct 31? Yes = 31% (contract low)
* EU referendum before 2020? Yes = 20% ( near contract low, despite brief spike
to 30% yesterday)
* First to happen - Brexit/General Election? Brexit = 57% (has hovered mostly
between 50-70% for months)
* 2nd Vote of No Confidence In Government In 2019? 53% (contract low)
* No deal Brexit in 2019? Yes = 20% (well up from 10% over past few months)
* Next Conservative Leader - Boris Johnson 37.5% (around contract high)

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