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Better Exports, Lower Trade Deficit In First 20-days Of June

SOUTH KOREA

The first 20-days of June trade data showed an improving trend in terms of the headline export print. We printed at +5.3%y/y, the first gain since August last year. It also compares with -16.1% y/y last month, although base effects have been at play over the past 2 months.

  • The daily average export number was -2% y/y, so less positive than the headline result, but the trend is improving. This metric troughed at -23.1% y/y in March of this year. As the chart below suggests this points to improving trends in the full month y/y figure, although the relationship is by no means perfect between the two series.
  • Chip exports were still down -23.5% y/y, but this is an improvement on the May read of -35.5% (for the first 20 days of that month).
  • Exports to China were down -12.5% y/y, but again showing an improvement, while exports to the US bounced to +18.4% y/y.
  • On the import side, we were down -11.2% y/y, with momentum slightly better compared to the first 20-days of May (-15.3%).
  • The trade deficit was -$1.607bn, versus -$4.3bn for the equivalent period in May. This is the best result (for the 20-day period) since late 2021.

Fig 1: South Korea Export Trend Showing Slightly Better Trends

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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