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Better Risk Appetite Offsets Higher US Real Yields

IDR

USD/IDR is back sub the 15100 level (last 15075/80), around +0.55% firmer in IDR terms for the session so far. This puts the pair back to early Feb lows. USD/IDR is outperforming other USD/Asia pairs, with the pair back below all key EMAs and MA levels. The pair bottomed out in the 14800/15000 region through late Jan/early Feb.

  • The better equity tone, coupled with lower CDS levels will be driving improving risk appetite towards the IDR, particularly with light domestic news flows. 5yr CDS is back to 110, versus recent highs near 125.
  • Commodity prices have also rebounded, with palm oil up over 5% in the first two sessions of this week. This follows a broader recovery in globla commodity prices.
  • These factors are outweighing the firmer core yield backdrop, (US 10yr real yield rose back to +129bps on Monday, up from Friday's recent low of +116bps).
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