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Bi-Weekly CPI Expected To Have Eased To 5.66% Y/y

MEXICO
  • CPI Day: USDMXN holds a fairly narrow range overnight and notably still above last Friday's break level at 20.25 that is immediate support. Inflation in the first two weeks of August likely fell to 5.66% from 5.86% in the second half of July, remaining above the ceiling of the 3.0% +/- 1 percentage point target. Non-core inflation should explain the decline with core inflation expected to extend its uptrend reflected by accelerating services inflation in line with recovering domestic demand and economic reopening.
  • With the next central bank meeting not scheduled until September 30, this will be the first of three key inflation readings that will provide clues as to the future path of policy for Banxico's governing board.
  • Banxico Minutes due on Thursday may also provide markets with further clarity on the discussions between the split board.
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico Aug-15 Bi-Weekly CPI (Est. 0.05% M/m vs. 0.24% Prior)
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico Aug-15 Bi-Weekly CPI (Est. 5.66% Y/y vs. 5.86% Prior)
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico Aug-15 Bi-Weekly Core CPI (Est. 0.20% M/m vs. 0.24% Prior)
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