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Bi-weekly CPI, Q4 GDP And Banxico Minutes Due

MEXICO
  • Retail sales data were weaker than expected in December (-0.9% m/m; -0.2% y/y), which Itau note is consistent with a softer expansion in Q4 GDP, the final estimate of which will be published at 1200GMT(0700ET). Itau expect Q4 GDP growth to be revised down a tick to 2.3% y/y (consensus 2.4%), taking 2023 GDP growth to 3.1%. December economic activity will also cross at 1200GMT, as will bi-weekly CPI, where analysts expect headline inflation to moderate to 4.70% y/y, from 4.87%, aided by lower non-core food prices. Core CPI inflation is also expected to ease to 4.67% y/y, from 4.75%, supported by lower goods prices.
  • Later today, Banxico will publish the minutes of its monetary policy decision earlier this month, where the Board voted unanimously to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11.25% (1500GMT). At the meeting, the Board also opened the door to a potential cut at the next MPC meeting and so market participants will be looking for any clues as to policymakers’ willingness to cut in March.
    • Feb. Bi-Weekly CPI YoY, est. 4.70%, prior 4.87%
    • Feb. Bi-Weekly Core CPI YoY, est. 4.67%, prior 4.75%
    • 4Q GDP SA QoQ, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
    • 4Q GDP NSA YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
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