Biased Later On OPEC Meeting Delay

Oil has spent the first part of the Thursday session under pressure, although much of the damage was done at the open, as Asia Pac markets digested Wednesday's news of a delayed OPEC meeting. Brent fell sharply to a low of $80.55/bbl after opening at $81.60/bbl. We have recovered some ground since then but have been unable to get back above $81/bbl (last near $80.85/bbl). We sit 1.35% weaker at this stage, with WTI off by 1.20% and last near $76.20/bbl.

• Focus will be on the delayed OPEC + meeting, now scheduled for November 30th (instead of November 26th). Analysts from Citi note this is unlikely to change the outcome around Saudi Arabia rolling its 1mln barrel cut into 2024 (see this BBG link).
• Other indicators suggest reduce tightness in the market though, the Brent prompt spread back close to flat, after being above $2 at the end of October. This is consistent with rising inventory levels in the US.
• Note subdued trading may be evident in the US session, given the Thanksgiving holiday.
• For WTI, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting bearish sentiment. The focus is on $70.96, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high.
• For Brent, it is a similar backdrop. Note the 20-day EMA is around $83.30/bbl, while on the downside Nov 16 lows rest at $76.60/bbl.