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Biden Admin Unlikely to Target Iranian Oil with Sanctions: Reuters

OIL

Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel is unlikely to prompt dramatic sanctions on Iran’s oil exports from the USA amid worries about boosting oil prices and alienating China, Reuters said.

  • Analysts doubt that Biden would take significant action to ramp up enforcement of existing sanctions on Iran to cut off their crude exports.
  • The risk of further constricting global supply and boosting gasoline prices in an election year in one factor dissuading stronger action.
  • Iran’s exports stand at around 1.8m b/d, close to the 2m b/d pre-sanctions level.
  • Aggressive sanction-enforcement could destabilise the US-China relationship.
  • China is a big buyer of Iranian oil, taking 1.11m b/d in 2023. Most of it is labelled as Malaysian origin and is carried by the dark fleet.
  • Instead, more gestural sanctions will be taken, rather than anything to meaningful disrupt current flows, analysts told Reuters.
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