Biden Departs On Mid-East Trip

US President Joe Biden has departed the US for his anticipated trip to the Middle East.

• White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will gaggle shortly aboard Air Force One. A livestream of the press gaggle will be available here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/
• According to the White House, Biden "will reinforce the United States iron-clad commitment to Israel's security and prosperity, meet with Palestinian leaders, conduct bilateral discussions with Saudi leaders, and attend a Summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan (known as the GCC+3)."
• Biden is expected to talk up his support for a two-state solution" in Israel and Palestine.
• The Saudi trip has been subject to criticism from opponents over a U-turn on a pledge to make Saudi Arabia "a pariah" following the killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
• Former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Joseph Westphal justified the trip to Politico: “We need partners to support our climate change initiatives... the Russian invasion of Ukraine [and] to take advantage of trade opportunities which.. have been overcome by Chinese trade in the region.”
• According to Westphal, the best-case scenario for Biden is as follows: “...if the discussion goes really, really well, Mohammed bin Salman... could certainly make some announcement at the end of the meeting, that they will work to increase the supply of oil to try to attempt to reduce prices.”
• The MNI commodities team believes that a significant increase in production is unlikely before the new year when the existing OPEC+ agree ends. Moreover, the Saudis won't want to draw down on spare capacity too much, so if they do agree to an increase, it is expected to be relatively small and gradual.