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Biden Win Results In Risk Rally

FOREX

Risk started the week with a bang after Joe Biden was declared U.S. President-elect, with markets shelving concerns over uncertainty surrounding legal action taken by incumbent President Trump & the run-off Senate election in Georgia. High-beta FX rallied, leaving safe haven currencies at the bottom of the G10 pile.

  • The kiwi outperformed all of its G10 peers, with NZD/USD surging to levels not seen since Apr 1, 2019. NZ FinMin Robertson met with RBNZ Gov Orr for a "general catch up on the general state of the economy" rather than policy matters. The RBNZ will deliver its last MonPol decision of the year on Wednesday.
  • USD/JPY extended its recovery after the Japanese MoF stressed the importance of stability in FX markets, while refusing to comment on specific levels or drivers of FX moves. The yen landed at the bottom of G10 scoreboard, but in the grand scheme of things USD/JPY remains near worst levels since Mar.
  • A contact flagged Japanese selling of EUR around the Tokyo fix.
  • Greenback weakness filtered through into Asian EMFX space, with USD/Asia losing ground across the board. USD/CNH & USD/KRW printed fresh multi-month lows. The redback may have drawn some additional support from wider than exp. trade surplus reported by China over the weekend.
  • TRY went bid after the abrupt departure of CBRT Gov Uysal & Turkish FinMin Albayrak. The reshuffle, which involved the nomination of ex-FinMin & market-friendly technocrat Agbal as the new CBRT chief, was interpreted as a potential signal of a change of tack in Turkey's economic policy.
  • Today's economic docket is light, features German trade balance & comments from Fed's Mester & Kaplan, ECB's Lagarde, Rehn & Mersch as well as BoE's Bailey & Haldane.
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