DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'

MNI BRIEF: Fed’s Collins Sees Rate Cuts Later Than Had Thought

MNI BRIEF: China March M2 Slows More Than Expected

MNI BRIEF: China Tightens Stock Market Supervision

MNI BRIEF: China Mar Exports Jump On Demand; Imports Improve

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0967 Fri; -4.87% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 617; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 109

March Home Sales Jumped At End Of Month

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Big Jobs Miss Not Big Enough to Forestall Late 2021 Taper

US TSYS
Big miss from forecasters on Aug jobs data (+235k vs.+725k est) and Big initial ranges in the minutes following Friday's early headline data.
  • Tsys initially gapped higher/broke range on the large data miss (July up-revision to +1.053M vs. +943k did little to temper the move. Tsys completely reverse post-data gap bid and extend session lows w/yld curves bear steepening to new highs shortly after. It took a little while to explain (justify?) moves as rates held to lower range.
  • General agreement: on one hand the weaker than expected Aug jobs gain will forestall any taper annc at the Sep FOMC, RBS/NatWest economists said. On the other, it's still a +235k gain -- not small enough for the Fed "to back away from their 'this year' signal either."
  • Wrightson economists downplayed any covid-tied lag to low job gains, positing the slowdown more likely due to "resumption of in-person school attendance along with the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits will boost labor supply in the months ahead, resulting in larger payroll gains in future months."
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.1bps at 0.2061%, 5-Yr is up 2.1bps at 0.7852%, 10-Yr is up 3.9bps at 1.3223%, and 30-Yr is up 4.5bps at 1.942%.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.