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Big Jump In 2024-25 Dot Plot Rates Alongside Strong Growth Expectations

FED

The updated economic projections are below. The major standout of course is the big rise in the 2024 end-year rate median to 5.1% which was not expected by any of the 30 analysts whose previews we read (highest est was 4.9% with upside risks).

  • The 3.9% for 2025 carrying over from that 2024 number is also an upside surprise.
  • That comes alongside the changes in the macro projections: a big rise in 2023 growth (as expected, but 2.1% is at the high end of expectations) and an unexpectedly high carry-over for 2024; the sharp drop in unemployment for 2023 and especially 2024; and a less-dovish-than-expected core PCE projection to 3.7% which most analysts saw dropping to 3.6% of lower (though headline projections are roughly in line).

Source: Federal Reserve

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