EGB Supply For W/C Aug 30, 2021

The Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Spain and France are all due to come to the market this week. We look for gross nominal issuance of E29.1bln, up from E10.5bln last week. In addition, there are a number of countries which could hold syndications as the summer lull in issuance comes to an end.

• The Netherlands will kick off issuance this morning with E1.5-2.5bln of the 4-year 0.25% Jul-25 DSL on offer.
• Italy will then conclude August issuance with up to E7.75bln of BTP/CCTeu: E2.0-2.5bln of the 0% Aug-26 BTP, E2.75-3.25bln of the 0.95% Dec-31 BTP and E1.5-2.0bln of the 0.65% Apr-29 CCTeu.
• Germany will come to the market tomorrow to reopen the 0% Oct-26 Bobl for E4bln.
• On Thursday, Spain will look to sell E3-4bln of nominals: an off-the-run 6-year Obli, on-the-run 7/10-year Oblis and an Obli-Ei: the 1.50% Apr-27 Obli, the 0% Jan-28 Bono, the 0.50% Oct-31 Obli. In addition, the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei will be on offer for E250-750mln.
• France will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with E10-11bln of the 10/30-year OATs and 23-year Green OAT on offer: the 0% Nov-31 OAT, the 1.50% May-50 OAT and the 0.50% Jun-44 Green OAT.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The most notable redemption of the week is a BTP originally issued as a 10-year with a coupon of 4.75% that is due to mature for E22.5bln; total redemptions are E22.8bln. In addition, there are E8.6bln of coupon payments, almost exclusively Italian. With gross nominal issuance of E29.1bln, we look for negative net nominal issuance of -E2.4bln (although this could easily turn positive with syndications). This is down from a positive E10.5bln last week.

For a calendar of all announced EGB/EU/ESM/EFSF auctions see the MNI EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar here.