Blinken-Lavrov Talks Unlikely To Resolve Tensions

The key meeting in a packed week of diplomacy takes place between US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva tomorrow. We will provide an update when the timing of the meeting is released.

• The most likely outcome of the meeting is a reassertion of incompatible positions on European security. Beyond that it is likely we will see proposals from Russia for more strategic talks on security planned for the future. The Putin administration has a history of engaging in drawn-out diplomatic talks.
• The current level of tension on the Ukrainian border is very high and the extent of troop mobilisations in recent days is unprecedented. The threat of a Russian invasion remains strong and comments by US President Joe Biden yesterday may have damaged Blinken's negotiating position.
• The European bloc, however, is now more aligned after a so called 'Transatlantic Quad' meeting today. Hawkish comments from German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock suggest that Germany will be willing to support highly punitive US sanctions.