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$-Bloc Markets Little Changed Over The Past Week

STIR
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STIR markets within the $-bloc are little changed over the past week, with year-end official rate expectations unchanged in Canada, Australia and NZ and 5bps firmer in the US.

  • Yesterday, Federal Reserve officials pushed back the timing of any possible interest rate cut to later this year after FOMC members raised their expectations for where inflation will end in 2024. That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the forecasts are only a snapshot of a committee's views and that policymakers are maintaining maximum flexibility.
  • The new projection for the 2024 median Fed funds rate, showed just one cut anticipated by year-end, versus three in March’s projection (and versus 2 widely expected). (See MNI Fed Review here)
  • In Australia, the focus is on today’s May Employment Report. While the labour market remains tight, there are signs it is gradually easing. The data has been volatile lately so it will continue to be important to look through that volatility to the underlying trends. Bloomberg consensus expects 30k new jobs with the unemployment rate easing by 0.1pp to 4.0%.
  • If employment comes close to consensus at 30k, it will be slightly higher than the 6-month average to April but a lot lower than the 3-month average of around 50k.


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STIR markets within the $-bloc are little changed over the past week, with year-end official rate expectations unchanged in Canada, Australia and NZ and 5bps firmer in the US.

  • Yesterday, Federal Reserve officials pushed back the timing of any possible interest rate cut to later this year after FOMC members raised their expectations for where inflation will end in 2024. That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the forecasts are only a snapshot of a committee's views and that policymakers are maintaining maximum flexibility.
  • The new projection for the 2024 median Fed funds rate, showed just one cut anticipated by year-end, versus three in March’s projection (and versus 2 widely expected). (See MNI Fed Review here)
  • In Australia, the focus is on today’s May Employment Report. While the labour market remains tight, there are signs it is gradually easing. The data has been volatile lately so it will continue to be important to look through that volatility to the underlying trends. Bloomberg consensus expects 30k new jobs with the unemployment rate easing by 0.1pp to 4.0%.
  • If employment comes close to consensus at 30k, it will be slightly higher than the 6-month average to April but a lot lower than the 3-month average of around 50k.


Keep reading...Show less