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Ita-coin Nowcast Negative For Second Month

ITALY DATA
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The Bank of Italy’s Ita-coin indicator, which provides a nowcast for Q/Q Italian trend growth (i.e. excluding seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility), fell again in June to -0.17, versus -0.06 In May.

  • The indicator averaged -0.02 in Q2 (i.e. broadly flat growth).
  • This comes following a run of soft domestic data, such as retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing surveys.
  • However, offsetting factors include an expansionary services sector (according to surveys) and a strong labour market.
  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees Q2 Italian GDP growth at 0.2% Q/Q, after a 0.3% reading in Q1.
  • The first estimate of Q2 GDP will be released at the end of this month.

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The Bank of Italy’s Ita-coin indicator, which provides a nowcast for Q/Q Italian trend growth (i.e. excluding seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility), fell again in June to -0.17, versus -0.06 In May.

  • The indicator averaged -0.02 in Q2 (i.e. broadly flat growth).
  • This comes following a run of soft domestic data, such as retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing surveys.
  • However, offsetting factors include an expansionary services sector (according to surveys) and a strong labour market.
  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees Q2 Italian GDP growth at 0.2% Q/Q, after a 0.3% reading in Q1.
  • The first estimate of Q2 GDP will be released at the end of this month.