Free Trial

$-Bloc Terminal Rate Expectations Firm Following US CPI Data


Market expectations regarding terminal interest rates in the $-bloc have firmed following the release of US CPI data for September, apart from NZ.

  • While headline CPI beat by 0.1% and core printed in line, the services component, excluding housing and energy, rose 0.6% m/m. Moreover, the Cleveland Fed’s mean and trimmed mean measures and the Atlanta Fed’s sticky CPI measure all strengthened for the second consecutive month.
  • Terminal rate expectations and the cumulative tightening currently stand at: 5.43%, +10bps (FOMC); 5.23%, +23bps (BoC); 4.23%, +16bps (RBA); and 5.70%, +20bps (RBNZ).

Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR: Terminal Rate Expectations & June’24 Pricing

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.