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BMixed Survey For Friday's BanRep Meeting/Decision

COLOMBIA
  • Within the Bloomberg survey, analysts are split over this week’s BanRep decision, which is scheduled for 1900GMT/1400ET on Friday. The majority (14/21) believe the Colombian central bank will maintain the aggressive tightening pace with another 100bp hike to 13.00. However, five are calling for a 75bp hike and two for a more moderate 50bp hike to 12.50%.
  • Inflation surged to 13.12% in December which provides an uncomfortable backdrop for the BanRep committee, however, with many forecasting the terminal rate between 12.50-13.00%, the decision will be closely watched. Furthermore, most recent commentary from Finance Minister Ocampo saying that the central bank doesn’t need to lift its benchmark interest rate any higher than its current level of 12% may indicate that the bar is set low for a surprise.
  • JPMorgan note that they maintain their 75bp call (to 12.75%) despite the ongoing deterioration of inflation expectations, as with some hard proof of economic slowing, the calmer market tone, and the policy rate in restrictive territory they think the board will want to signal their intent to wind down the cycle. JPM still see a final 25bp hike to 13% in the March meeting.
  • Just retail and industrial confidence data scheduled this week. The full MNI central bank preview with analyst views will be published on Wednesday.
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