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BMO On The Pullback From Wides In Breakevens

US TSYS/TIPS

BMO note that "reports that the U.S. will soon be selling oil out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continued to make the rounds on Monday. The notion that the U.S., in concert with Japan, South Korea and India, could begin selling oil as soon as Tuesday certainly helps to contain fears that the energy complex will continue to drive consumer prices - although there remain plenty of concerns on the core level. Confirmation of a less-dovish Fed via the Powell nod, combined with expectations for the SPR to be utilized, accelerated the decline of 10-year breakevens that started on Friday, bringing this measure of inflation expectations as low as 260 bp - a 17.5 bp retracement. The Fed's long track record of not responding to headline pricing pressures, preferring to characterize them as a tax on consumption, implies less immediate policy ramifications from the concerted effort to contain oil's recent rally; although one would be remiss not to acknowledge the proactive optics of the move. A point punctuated by the proximity to the holiday spending season."


Fig. 1: U.S. 10-Year Breakevens

Source: MNI - Market NEws/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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