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BMO & RBC Keep Mar & Apr Liftoff As Base-Case

CANADA
  • BMO note that while Canadian price trends were no worse than expected for a second month, inflation still “looks to have plentiful staying power, with oil prices on the march, firms reporting intense labour shortages, and core inflation grinding up”.
  • They think the BoC “will tee up a March move at next week's meeting, although we cannot rule out more immediate action (and the market is leaning heavily that way)”.
  • “A more interesting debate is just how far the Bank will ultimately need to go on the rate front to bring inflation under better control—and that's where Canada's calmer core trends versus others [in the G7] could be key”.
  • RBC meanwhile see a “base-case for an April hike but with any meeting, including next week’s, a significant possibility”.
  • CPI ex food & energy increased to 3.4% Y/Y. “That caps off a year of strong gains – boosted by surging house, car and industrial input prices. All of those factors are expected to keep a floor under prices in the near-term”.
  • "Business near-term inflation expectations have increased with orders outstripping production capacity amid ongoing supply chain disruptions. And extremely tight labour markets are expected to push wages higher."
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