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US TSYS/RESEARCH: BMO's Ian Lyngen adds Fed Chr Yellen on Fri will "need to walk
the line of acknowledging that inflation is an increasing concern for the FOMC,
while simultaneously keeping expectations in place for a balance sheet rolloff
announcement in September."
- He adds "those anticipating that she will completely recast softer core
inflation as something more than transitory will surely be disappointed, but we
do expect the Chair will at least leave the possibility open that the Fed could
pause in December if the inflation data continues to deteriorate. After all, in
separating the tapering announcement from the December rate hike, and making the
latter more data dependent than the former, the Committee has already done so to
a large extent."
- He said ECB's Draghi is the week's "true wildcard", which "has been a
universal theme, and that leaves the emphasis on Mario's comments over Janet's,
although the post-close liquidity conditions on the last Friday in August will
certainly add to the volatility, if we do happen to see hear anything more
concrete about changes to the ECB's bond buying program."