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BNP; 4Q23 Misses, Targets Trimmed

FINANCIALS

BNP (BNP FP) 4Q23 results missed consensus on profits and capital and had a small downgrade to targets included.


  • Revenues missed (due to FICC) and were EUR10.90bn (+0.1% y/y, consensus: 11.44bn) and credit losses rose to EUR 972m (43bp of loans, up from 33bp in 3Q23). Hit by EUR645m of exceptionals, too, net profit came in at EUR1.07bn (cons: 1.93bn), so a miss even underlying.
  • Credit losses were higher, driven by the personal finance businesses but non-performers were actually lower at Dec-23 (EUR19.2bn, or 1.7%, from 20.1bn at Sep-23). CET1 is 13.2% (down 20bp in the quarter and below 13.3% expectations) and total capital is 17.3% (-50bp).
  • Group RoTE target has been trimmed for FY24, as have profit growth expectations, so equity holders are likely to be discomfited today. Credit quality isn’t worsening rapidly but the weaker cash generation of the business alongside (marginally) lower capital ratios is unhelpful, we feel.

Conf call is 1300 London time at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/etvnqexf/

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