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BNP: Look for three more hikes this year with active QT starting early 2023

  • BNP notes that “the inflation narrative is unlikely to change any time soon.
  • “We now expect the MPC to deliver three further rate hikes this year (in March, May and August) before pausing.” (Previously just forecast February and one more).
  • “We expect two more rate hikes over the course of 2023 with Bank Rate ending the year at 1.75%.” (Previously expected two hikes but with year-end rate of 1.25%).
  • “We expect the MPC to announce its intentions with regard to outright gilt sales in May at the latest, as we forecast Bank Rate to reach the 1% threshold above which such sales can be considered. Reflecting the changes in our Bank Rate profile, we also now bring forward our expectations regarding the timing of active gilt sales to the start of 2023.”

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