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BNP now looks for 25bp next week but keep end 2022/23 forecasts unchanged

BOE
  • "With the Covid backdrop improving and inflation continuing to surprise to the upside, we now expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 0.25% on 3 February, versus our prior expectation of a May hike. In doing so, we expect the monetary policy committee to kick start the process of balance sheet reduction"
  • "Still, the MPC is likely to be less hawkish next week than the action alone would imply, while we remain of the view that it will deliver a more gradual pace of rate hikes than is priced into markets"
  • "We expect Bank Rate to end this year at 0.75% and end 2023 at 1.25% – markets currently price that level being reached by the end of 2022." This forecast is unchanged from BNP's previous year-end forecasts.
  • "On the projections, we expect a more downbeat growth outlook than in November"
  • "We expect revisions to the inflation outlook to be mostly in the short term – where the majority of the ‘news’ has been"
  • "In December the MPC indicated that it saw “two-sided” (by which it means balanced) risks to the inflation outlook... we suspect the MPC might wait for more evidence before concluding that inflation risks have shifted decisively to the upside."
  • "We would expect the MPC – as it did in November – to push back on the extent of market pricing over the next year. Mann’s talk of a ‘shallower path’ of rate rises supports this view"
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