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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessBNP now looks for 25bp next week but keep end 2022/23 forecasts unchanged
- "With the Covid backdrop improving and inflation continuing to surprise to the upside, we now expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 0.25% on 3 February, versus our prior expectation of a May hike. In doing so, we expect the monetary policy committee to kick start the process of balance sheet reduction"
- "Still, the MPC is likely to be less hawkish next week than the action alone would imply, while we remain of the view that it will deliver a more gradual pace of rate hikes than is priced into markets"
- "We expect Bank Rate to end this year at 0.75% and end 2023 at 1.25% – markets currently price that level being reached by the end of 2022." This forecast is unchanged from BNP's previous year-end forecasts.
- "On the projections, we expect a more downbeat growth outlook than in November"
- "We expect revisions to the inflation outlook to be mostly in the short term – where the majority of the ‘news’ has been"
- "In December the MPC indicated that it saw “two-sided” (by which it means balanced) risks to the inflation outlook... we suspect the MPC might wait for more evidence before concluding that inflation risks have shifted decisively to the upside."
- "We would expect the MPC – as it did in November – to push back on the extent of market pricing over the next year. Mann’s talk of a ‘shallower path’ of rate rises supports this view"
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.