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BNP Paribas Constructive on SAGBs, Less so on ZAR as Terms of Trade Soften

SOUTH AFRICA

BNP Paribas on ZAR & SAGBs:

  • Gradual deterioration in South Africa’s terms of trade could see rand weakening to 16.50 per dollar
  • Current-account balance to swing to deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 2022, from an estimated surplus of 3.8% of GDP in 2021
  • Gradual deterioration in South Africa’s terms of trade could see rand weakening to 16.50 per dollar
  • “We remain constructive on South African government bonds given a robust fiscal performance in FY21/22, large cash buffers and a chance that the National Treasury could even find room to modestly cut issuance, depending on social spending, from the second quarter”
  • Citi Terms of Trade


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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